Glassnode: Bitcoin Stuck in Sideways Range — Market Lacks Catalyst for Breakout

Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight $60,000 to $70,000 corridor amid early signs of spot demand absorption and derivative position rebalancing, according to Glassnode's latest weekly report.

No Catalyst, No Breakout

Glassnode analysts observe that Bitcoin volatility is declining and market positions are reaching equilibrium. However, without a clear catalyst, the market lacks the conviction needed for a sustained upward move.

The primary headwind remains a substantial volume of coins purchased above $80,000 that are currently held at an unrealized loss. These investors, who have endured more than six months of bearish conditions, face a difficult choice: sell on any bounce to minimize losses, or continue holding with the risk of psychological capitulation if the downturn persists.

A large cluster of addresses with entry prices between $80,000 and $126,000 has formed. Glassnode experts suggest that resolving this overhang will likely require either a significant price decline to attract new buyers, or a prolonged consolidation period during which these coins gradually transfer to more committed long-term holders.

Losses Approaching Q2 2022 Levels

The indicator tracking total BTC supply held at a loss shows structural similarity to conditions seen in the second quarter of 2022. The 30-day smoothed metric has exceeded 8.4 million BTC.

In parallel, realized losses among long-term holders are climbing — the daily figure has reached $200 million. This signals that even seasoned market participants are beginning to lock in losses.

Early Signs of Spot Stabilization

Despite the bearish signals, spot markets are showing nascent signs of stabilization. Glassnode notes that the 30-day moving average of Coinbase's spot volume delta has turned slightly positive in the most recent data.

Nevertheless, bearish pressure is amplified by growing interest in short positions across derivative markets. According to the analysts, further buildup of buying pressure will be necessary to support a more durable recovery.

Why This Matters

Bitcoin's current trajectory follows its worst first quarter since 2018. The gap between spot price and realized price has narrowed from 120% at the end of 2024 to just 21%, indicating a dramatic compression of the speculative premium.

The massive supply overhang in the $80,000–$126,000 zone creates formidable resistance for any upward move. Until these coins either transfer to stronger hands or are sold off, Bitcoin risks remaining trapped in its current sideways range. The structural resemblance to Q2 2022 conditions adds a layer of caution — that period preceded a further deepening of the bear market.