Bitcoin Hits $70,000 as Iran Ceasefire Talks Boost Risk Appetite

BTC Surges 4% on Middle East De-escalation Hopes

Bitcoin climbed 4% on April 6, testing the $70,000 mark as geopolitical developments fueled renewed demand for risk assets. At the time of reporting, BTC was trading around $69,700.

Ethereum posted an even stronger gain of 5.5%, reaching $2,150.

Why This Matters

According to Axios, the United States, Israel, and Iran are discussing a 25-day ceasefire. The news sparked optimism about reduced tensions in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Risk asset demand increased while the dollar index declined.

The greenback's weakness accelerated following reports that Pakistan is mediating what has been dubbed the Islamabad Agreement. Under its terms, the ceasefire and the reopening of the strait would take effect immediately.

On Polymarket, the probability of a ceasefire surged from 18% to 28%.

MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe believes BTC's trajectory hinges on the outcome of negotiations. He suggested that a breakout above $71,000 would open the door for a test of $80,000.

"Pretty strong momentum on the markets of #Bitcoin. Volatility picking up, and I think it's fireworks during this week as we might be getting to the end stage of the entire situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If #Bitcoin breaks $71K, then markets are in for a test at $80K." — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), original post

Derivatives Market Sends Mixed Signals

Open interest for Bitcoin and Ethereum jumped 5.5% and 11% respectively, signaling fresh capital entering the market. On Deribit, the most popular options contracts are a BTC put with a $60,000 strike and a call at $80,000 — each carrying over $1.4 billion in open interest.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the Bitcoin Regime Score flipped positive for the first time in 14 days, reaching +14.1. However, the funding rate dropped to -0.43%, its lowest reading in two weeks.

"🔴 Bitcoin funding rate just dropped to -0.43% the most negative reading in two weeks. At the same time, the Regime Score flipped positive: +14.1 after 13 straight bearish days. Two signals. Opposite directions. One of them is wrong." — Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr), original post

According to the analyst, derivatives traders remain skeptical about a sustained reversal. The divergence between negative funding and a positive Regime Score points to two possible outcomes:

• Short squeeze: if the broader market signal proves correct, rising prices will force short closures and funding rates will follow the Regime Score higher.
• Technical bounce: if price fails to hold, the Regime Score will weaken and turn negative again, validating the funding rate as a leading indicator.

Adler Jr. emphasized that the key confirmation of a genuine reversal would be rising funding rates alongside continued price appreciation.

On-Chain Data Shows Long-Term Holder Accumulation

Pseudonymous analyst Darkfost observed that Bitcoin's long-term holder (LTH) supply has turned positive for the first time since November. On average, 308,000 BTC have transitioned into the long-term holder category.

"📈 Bitcoin LTH supply turns positive again. Between geopolitical tensions and their economic consequences, the current environment remains very challenging for markets, particularly for risk assets but some investors seem to be betting on the long term." — Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), original post

Darkfost described the trend as a "constructive and favorable signal," noting that similar behavioral shifts have historically preceded positive BTC price action.

The metric is based on the UTXO model and reflects the aging of unspent outputs rather than active buying. Coins that remain unmoved for six months automatically transition from short-term to long-term holder status. When investor behavior shifts toward holding rather than selling, LTH supply naturally increases. During bearish phases, however, such transitions can occur without generating a definitive signal of structural trend change.

Darkfost stressed the importance of monitoring LTH behavior going forward — sustained positive dynamics would serve as a compelling bullish indicator. For context, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone previously warned that Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 if it loses the $75,000 level.