Bitcoin Rebounds to $70,000 as Leverage Drops and ETF Inflows Continue

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level on March 10, fully recovering from its weekend dip. The rebound coincided with oil prices falling to $93 and a positive session for equity indices.

BTC/USDT hourly chart on Binance. Source: TradingView

Market maker Enflux assessed that Bitcoin "easily weathered" the heightened volatility in commodity markets, holding up notably better than traditional equities during the turbulence.

Why This Matters

Bitcoin's return to $70,000 comes as its correlation with the S&P 500 has reached 0.78 — the highest since mid-2022. This tight coupling with traditional finance means the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on March 17–18 could be a decisive catalyst. Any hawkish signals regarding rate hikes could trigger a broad sell-off in digital assets.

Spot ETF Inflows Remain Strong

Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows no signs of fading. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States attracted approximately $568 million over the past week, pushing cumulative inflows past the $55 billion mark.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flow statistics. Source: SoSoValue

Investor activity persisted despite weak U.S. macroeconomic data showing a loss of 92,000 jobs, which prompted capital outflows from the S&P 500. Ryan Kirkley, head of Global Settlement, noted that institutional investors treated Bitcoin's price decline as an attractive entry opportunity.

Glassnode analysts also reported signs of industry stabilization, citing growing fund demand and recovering profitability. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 by the end of March climbed from 34% to 55%.

Polymarket prediction market data. Source: Polymarket

Altcoin Performance

Major altcoins followed Bitcoin's lead. Ethereum broke through the psychological $2,000 barrier, reaching $2,046 (+2.8% over 24 hours). Analysts at FxPro suggested that ETH needs to hold above $2,500 to confirm a sustained uptrend.

Solana gained 3.4% to $86.49. Despite the short-term uptick, the token still trades 70.5% below its all-time high of $293.31. With meme-token activity declining, Solana has become more dependent on broader macro conditions.

Other top-10 assets also posted gains:

• BNB — up 3.4% to $644;
• XRP — up 2.3% to $1.38, remaining range-bound between $1.3 and $1.45 throughout March.

Top cryptocurrency market data. Source: CoinGecko

Significant Deleveraging in Derivatives

Macroeconomic uncertainty is driving traders to aggressively reduce leveraged positions, as highlighted by analyst Darkfost.

"Bitcoin leverage reset after market volatility. Since February, Bitcoin's Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has dropped from 0.198 to 0.152, representing a significant and rapid decline. This type of move is typically observed after periods of strong volatility and major…" — Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), original post

The Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance — which measures the ratio of futures open interest to BTC reserves on the platform — fell from 0.198 to 0.152 since February. During the same period, Bitcoin's price corrected from $96,000 to $69,000.

Sharp price swings have forced market participants to exercise caution. Some traders voluntarily closed margin positions, while others were forcibly liquidated. Open interest contracted rapidly as the derivatives market underwent a large-scale deleveraging event.

Darkfost emphasized that deleveraging phases are healthy for the market. Reduced reliance on borrowed funds removes systemic pressure and stabilizes prices ahead of a new trend formation. If the leverage ratio fails to recover during Bitcoin's consolidation phase, spot market demand will become the primary price driver.