Options Traders Bet on Bitcoin Rally to $80,000 by Summer

Bitcoin is holding steady around $70,000 following a period of heightened volatility. Derivatives market participants are increasingly pricing in a continuation of the rally toward $80,000 by early summer, even as the macroeconomic backdrop remains uncertain.

BTC/USDT hourly chart on Binance. Data: TradingView

Why This Matters

Shifts in options market sentiment serve as a leading indicator for broader price direction. When large participants pivot from defensive hedging to bullish positioning, it signals a change in market consensus. The current setup is further strengthened by recovering spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and an overcrowded short market, creating conditions for a potential short squeeze.

Macro Backdrop and Inflation Data

Fresh U.S. inflation data came in line with analyst expectations, with the core consumer price index holding at 2.4% year-over-year. Markets viewed the predictability as a positive signal.

However, current reports do not yet account for the recent surge in oil prices. This puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position ahead of its March 18 meeting: inflation has technically declined and the labor market has cooled, but energy sector instability could trigger another wave of price pressures. Stefan Koltman, head of macroeconomics at 21Shares, warned that an inflation uptick next month is virtually unavoidable given the energy shocks.

Bitcoin Resilience and Options Pivot

QCP Capital analysts highlighted Bitcoin's ability to weather recent market turbulence. After briefly dipping below $63,000 during panic selling, the asset quickly reclaimed the $70,000 psychological level. Long-term holders continue accumulating in the $60,000–$70,000 range, establishing a support foundation.

Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, noted a meaningful shift in options positioning: the skew has flipped from negative to positive, and put-selling volumes have increased. This pattern reflects expectations of stable or rising prices.

Put/call ratio dynamics on Deribit. Source: The Block

According to Derive's estimates, the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $80,000 by the end of June stands at 35%. Many traders believe the worst of the downturn is behind them. That said, a large on-chain options trade worth $130 million was spotted, betting on a decline to $65,000 by the end of March — evidence that significant capital continues hedging against macro uncertainty.

Stabilization Signals and Key Price Levels

Bitcoin has traded within a narrow $62,800–$72,600 corridor for nearly a month. Glassnode analysts identify a transition from forced leverage liquidation to a stabilization phase. Price is trapped between two historically significant levels:

• Support: realized price ($54,400) — the average acquisition cost of all coins in circulation
• Resistance: true market mean price ($78,400)

An accumulation cluster is forming in the middle of this channel, though current volumes are insufficient for a powerful breakout. The STH-SOPR indicator at 0.985 indicates recent buyers are taking losses — a pattern typical of bearish phases.

The primary price magnet sits near $75,000, where approximately $2 billion in negative gamma is concentrated. If price reaches this level, market maker hedging could propel Bitcoin toward $80,000. Glassnode notes that $1.8 billion worth of options from this cluster expire on March 27, potentially reshuffling market dynamics.

ETF Inflows and Spot Demand Recovery

After several weeks of outflows, the 7-day moving average of inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has returned to positive territory — institutional players are buying the dip. On spot exchanges, the cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicator has turned upward, signaling that buyers are beginning to absorb seller liquidity.

Perpetual futures funding rates have turned negative, indicating bearish dominance with most traders paying a premium to hold short positions. If spot demand continues strengthening, this short crowding could trigger a squeeze and sharp price jump.

Futures Dominance on Binance

The futures-to-spot trading volume ratio on Binance has surged to 5.1 — the highest since mid-2023. Derivatives turnover now exceeds spot volume by more than five times.

"Binance Futures/Spot Ratio Hits 1.5-Year High. It reflects structural growth in derivatives trading, with futures volume expanding significantly while spot volume has remained largely flat." — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com), original post

According to CryptoQuant analyst maartunn, total trading volume on Binance reached $32.39 trillion in 2025: derivatives accounted for $25.4 trillion and spot for $6.99 trillion. Futures volume grew 19.7% from $21.21 trillion in 2024, while the spot segment showed no meaningful increase.

Derivatives Market and Bearish Bets

On Deribit, open interest on put options with a $20,000 strike has approached $800 million — the fourth most popular bearish bet. Deribit's head of retail sales, Sidra Farik, clarified that these figures should not be interpreted as expectations of a crash. Traders are selling deep out-of-the-money options to collect premium, and the probability of prices reaching that level is assessed as extremely low.

Broader Market Picture

Despite oil prices climbing toward $100 per barrel, the crypto market remains resilient. Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are trading without sharp swings. The standout performer was HYPE, the token of the Hyperliquid project, which gained approximately 7% in 24 hours.

sFOX vice president Diana Pires noted that the decline in leveraged positions creates a more stable foundation for the next move once a clear macroeconomic catalyst emerges.

External risks persist, however. The MOVE index, which tracks U.S. Treasury bond volatility, has risen from 60 to 76 points since late February — a dynamic that historically pressures risk assets. Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone reaffirmed in March his forecast that Bitcoin could still fall to $10,000.