Arthur Hayes: Hyperliquid Could Dominate Prediction Markets Thanks to HYPE Token

Hayes Backs Hyperliquid in the Prediction Markets Race

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has argued in an interview with CoinDesk that decentralized exchange Hyperliquid is positioned to take a leading role in the prediction markets space. According to Hayes, the platform's native HYPE token serves as the critical differentiator, enabling users to directly participate in the platform's economics rather than merely placing bets on event outcomes.

Hayes emphasized that Hyperliquid traders will not only wager on events but also benefit from the platform's activity through ownership of the native token. This structural feature sets it apart from incumbent competitors Kalshi and Polymarket.

Why This Matters

Prediction markets are experiencing rapid growth, and competition for dominance in this segment is intensifying. The entry of a major player with an established user base and a built-in value redistribution mechanism could fundamentally reshape the competitive landscape. If Hyperliquid delivers on its promise, it sets a precedent where platforms with tokenized economies hold a systemic advantage over traditional event-contract venues.

How Hyperliquid Stacks Up Against Kalshi and Polymarket

Hayes stated that HIP-4 will claim a leading position thanks to Hyperliquid's existing user base, low fees, and robust technical infrastructure. HYPE holders will directly benefit from platform activity.

On Kalshi, traders simply buy and sell contracts without gaining any stake in the platform's economics. Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight in the United States, where regulatory compliance takes precedence over tokenomics considerations.

Polymarket, meanwhile, is preparing to launch its own token. On Gate's pre-market, perpetual contracts on POLY are trading around $14, implying a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of approximately $14 billion. By comparison, HYPE's FDV currently exceeds $38 billion.

Hyperliquid enters the prediction markets arena with a ready-made mechanism for distributing value within its own ecosystem, Hayes noted.

Regulatory Asymmetry as a Competitive Edge

Hayes also pointed to geographical advantages. Kalshi operates exclusively within the U.S. regulatory framework under CFTC supervision. Polymarket, following its U.S. registration, faces tightening legal requirements and restrictions across Asia — the service is blocked or partially limited in Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Japan.

Hyperliquid faces no such barriers. Its audience skews toward Asian traders, a region where retail and semi-institutional event betting has long constituted a significant portion of the market.

HIP-4 Protocol Testing Underway

In March, the leading perp-DEX deployed the HIP-4 protocol with prediction markets on its testnet. Event-based wagering will function as an additional layer within Hyperliquid's existing ecosystem. Users will be able to open positions on event outcomes in much the same way they currently trade perpetual contracts.

During the testing phase, binary options on HyperCore base prices are available. The new functionality is built on so-called outcome tokens. In April, the platform revealed the fee structure for these assets: opening a position is free, with fees charged only upon closing or settlement.

Previously, researchers from London Business School and Yale University analyzed Polymarket transactions from 2023 to 2025 and concluded that the platform's forecast accuracy was driven by an "informed minority" rather than the "wisdom of the crowd."