VanEck CEO Says Bitcoin Is Forming a Price Bottom as Halving Cycle Holds

VanEck Chief Sees Bitcoin Building a Floor

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck stated in a CNBC interview that the leading cryptocurrency has approached a local price bottom. He argued that the four-year halving cycle continues to drive price action rather than fundamental factors.

Van Eck pointed to the familiar pattern: three years of appreciation followed by a year of sharp decline. He described the current environment as a typical bear market but expressed confidence that Bitcoin is already establishing a price floor. The executive expects a gradual recovery for the digital asset this year.

The debate around the relevance of four-year cycles persists. Critics argue that the market's structure has fundamentally changed, citing strong demand for spot ETFs, a weakening U.S. dollar, and positive regulatory developments as evidence.

Why This Matters

The assessment from the CEO of a major investment firm with billions in crypto-related assets under management carries significant weight among market participants. If the bottom thesis proves correct, it could serve as a signal for institutional investors to increase exposure. At the same time, the divergence between cycle adherents and those pointing to structural market shifts reflects a core uncertainty shaping investment decisions across the industry.

Geopolitical Tensions Boost BTC

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading near $68,182, up 3.3% over 24 hours and 8.1% over the past week.

BTC/USDT 15-minute chart on Binance. Source: TradingView

The price recovery coincided with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East stemming from the Israel-Iran conflict. Van Eck suggested that this instability supported Bitcoin's price, as cryptocurrencies enable cross-border transfers that bypass traditional banking channels. He described the Middle East as a crypto-friendly region and emphasized that blockchain-based payments are far more efficient than legacy financial systems.

Analysts See No Structural Reversal Yet

Despite weakening sell-side pressure, researchers at 10x Research warned that there are no signs of an exit from the broader bear trend. Bitcoin stopped falling even amid negative headlines and held the $62,500 support level after three tests.

Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The RSI is rising, and BTC is attempting to hold above its 20-day moving average (around $68,500). Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting a potential expansion in the trading range. 10x Research noted declining volatility, ETF inflows, and the disappearance of the Coinbase discount. They called the situation a "tactical shift" but stopped short of declaring a structural reversal, maintaining that Bitcoin remains in a bearish phase.

Justin d'Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, agreed that crypto markets are reacting more calmly to external events. Potential tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and persistently high interest rates failed to trigger a crash. According to d'Anethan, sellers are exhausted while buyers have begun accumulating positions, setting the stage for consolidation.

Bitrue head of research Andri Fauzan Adzima attributed the recent bounce from $63,000 to derivatives market dynamics. Negative funding rates triggered a short squeeze — a wave of forced liquidations of short positions — that temporarily relieved downward pressure. However, Adzima noted that the market lacks fresh capital inflows and macroeconomic catalysts needed for a confirmed uptrend.

Santiment Warns of Retail-Driven Pump

Analysts at Santiment suggested that Bitcoin's surge toward $70,000 may have been a short-lived pump driven by retail investors.

"📈 As today's markets have rallied, social data indicated there was a huge surge in positive sentiment as Bitcoin's price was threatening to fall below $65K. Over the next 2 hours and 20 minutes, $BTC rallied +7% and reached $69.9K before running into $70K resistance for the time…" — Santiment (@santimentfeed), original post

The platform detected a massive spike in positive social media sentiment precisely when the price risked dropping below $65,000. Over the following hours, BTC gained 7%, reaching $69,900 before hitting seller resistance at the psychological $70,000 mark.

According to Santiment, on-chain metrics suggest the rally could be limited in scope. The analysts cautioned traders about ongoing high-volatility risks, noting that future price action will largely depend on global news developments and macroeconomic conditions.