Bitcoin Whales Resume Accumulation: Santiment Identifies Bullish Signal

Large Holders Push BTC Share Above 68%

Bitcoin wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have been aggressively accumulating, pushing their combined share of the cryptocurrency's market supply above 68%. Analytics firm Santiment views this trend as a bullish signal that could indicate a positive shift in price momentum.

According to Santiment analysts, the recent shift toward accumulation by this cohort represents a clear bullish indicator. However, they noted that a local bottom typically forms when retail traders begin exiting the market in meaningful numbers — something that has not yet materialized.

The analysts pointed out that markets historically reach their lows when the "crowd" loses hope. The fact that smaller investors remain optimistic represents the strongest counterargument against an imminent reversal.

Why This Matters

Whale behavior has long been considered a leading indicator for Bitcoin's price trajectory. When large holders shift into accumulation mode, sustained rallies often follow. Yet the current environment presents a more nuanced picture, complicated by two key factors: excessive retail optimism and a divergence in the MVRV indicator between short-term and long-term investors.

The ratio of positive to negative cryptocurrency comments on social media has reached its highest level in six weeks. Santiment cautions that such elevated enthusiasm has historically preceded bull traps or local price peaks.

MVRV Divergence Tells a Split Story

At the time of writing, Bitcoin had recovered to around $71,500, gaining more than 6.5% over the past week according to CoinGecko data.

Santiment's MVRV indicator reveals a notable divergence between investor groups. Short-term holders — those who purchased within the last 30 days — are sitting on slight profits, creating some risk of sell-side pressure. Meanwhile, long-term holders (365+ days) are currently carrying losses of roughly 25% at prevailing prices.

Historically, periods when long-term holders find themselves underwater have offered the most attractive risk-to-reward ratios and favorable entry opportunities.

Trader Perspectives: $95,000 Target vs. Crash Replay

Analyst Ali Martinez, referencing MVRV Pricing Bands, suggested that a decisive move above $73,726 could pave the way for a sharp rally to $95,894.

"Per the MVRV Pricing Bands, clearing $73,726 could open the door for Bitcoin $BTC to surge to $95,894." — Ali Charts (@alicharts), original post

On the other hand, veteran trader Peter Brandt flagged a chart pattern forming on Bitcoin's price graph that closely resembles a setup which previously culminated in a plunge to $60,000.

"I pledge allegiance to the _ _ _ _ Fill in the blanks" — Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt), original post

The majority of Brandt's nearly 1 million followers interpreted the formation as a bearish "Rising Wedge." Some commenters, however, argued that the pattern could also be read as a "Channel," leaving room for an upside breakout.

The Bigger Picture

The data paints a mixed landscape. On one side, whale accumulation and long-term holder losses historically signal favorable entry conditions. On the other, persistent retail optimism and ambiguous technical patterns inject caution. Earlier on-chain data had failed to confirm that Bitcoin bulls were prepared for a meaningful medium-term breakout.