ETH Outpaces BTC in Weak Market as Analysts Eye $54K Realized Price for Bitcoin Bottom

Ethereum Shows Relative Strength Against Bitcoin

Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin on price action despite broader market weakness, according to MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe. The trader sees this divergence as a positive signal for the digital asset sector.

«The markets are waking up, and $ETH is outperforming Bitcoin. That's a good sign. However, for clear momentum, just break through 0.03250 $BTC and I'd be very happy as then I think we'll start to see strong continuation taking place.» — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), original post

Van de Poppe emphasized that a breakthrough above the 0.03250 level on the ETH/BTC pair would be the key confirmation needed for a sustained uptrend. Until that threshold is cleared, the bullish momentum remains unconfirmed.

ETH/USDT hourly chart on Binance. Source: TradingView

At the time of writing, ETH was trading near $2,000, down 1.9% over 24 hours and 6.4% over the past week. Bitcoin was hovering around $66,100, having fallen 2.1% in a day and 6.8% over seven days.

BTC/USDT hourly chart on Binance. Source: TradingView

Van de Poppe described Bitcoin's overall price action as weak and suggested new lows could be hit in the coming weeks. However, he framed this as a potential final stage of the bear market — an ideal accumulation window for long-term holders.

«Slight bounce earlier today, but clearly, direction is downwards instead of upwards. I wouldn't be surprised if we take out the lows in the coming weeks on Bitcoin. Ideal moment to accumulate larger positions on your holdings as it might be the final stage of the bear.» — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), original post

Realized Price at $54K Marks Potential Extreme Oversold Zone

On-chain metrics point to a possible floor for Bitcoin's current cycle. The Realized Price — which tracks the average acquisition cost of coins on the network — has historically served as a reliable indicator of bear market bottoms. The DeFi Report founder Michael Nadeau noted that BTC has traditionally traded below this metric during bearish phases.

«BTC historically trades *below* its Realized Price (a proxy for the cost basis of onchain coins) during bear markets. Furthermore, the Realized Price typically *declines* as time does its thing in a bear market (as older coins purchased at a higher price are sold at lower…)» — Michael Nadeau (@JustDeauIt), original post

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. pinpointed the current Realized Price at $54,000. A drop to that level would signal extreme oversold conditions — a state that has preceded major reversals in previous market cycles.

«Sales pressure is rising. If Bitcoin drops to $54K Realized Price — it goes abnormal.» — Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr), original post

Why This Matters

Traditional markets are under severe pressure. The S&P 500 has recorded its longest streak of daily losses since 2022, shedding over 7% across the last 10 sessions. The Nasdaq 100 declined 5% during the same period, driven by geopolitical tensions surrounding U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Crypto has shown relative resilience by comparison: total market capitalization remained nearly flat at $2.32 trillion. Since the Middle East escalation began, Bitcoin has traded within the $65,000–$73,000 range, selling off on each new development but holding its structural support.

Yet Adler Jr. cautioned against reading too much into this apparent decoupling.

«Bitcoin is not decoupling from equities. It's just getting weaker.» — Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr), original post

The analyst explained that while the formal correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has weakened in the short term, Bitcoin's relative performance against the index continues to deteriorate. The market still treats Bitcoin as a higher-risk asset with greater drawdown potential than equities. Until the BTC/S&P 500 ratio stabilizes and begins to recover, a genuine trend reversal remains unlikely.

Bitcoin's current stability could prove temporary. On March 30, BTC dropped to $65,112 — its lowest since late February. Without improvement in its relative dynamics, a sustained move higher appears improbable.