Ethereum Network Activity Nears All-Time High as Multiple Analysts Flag Bullish Divergence

Record On-Chain Activity Meets Price Stagnation

Daily transfers on the Ethereum blockchain have climbed close to 1.3 million — nearly matching the all-time high set in February — even as ETH continues to trade sideways. CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain described this disconnect as a bullish fundamental divergence, arguing that on-chain fundamentals are outpacing market pricing.

«Ethereum Network Activity Reaches New ATH: A Bullish Fundamental Divergence. If this strong utility trend persists, the probability of the price eventually catching up with these robust on-chain fundamentals in the mid-term remains highly favorable.» — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com), original post

Why This Matters

A growing gap between surging network usage and a flat price has historically preceded significant upward moves for Ethereum. The near-record transfer count carries several key implications:

• Expanding user adoption driven by DeFi protocols, Layer-2 scaling solutions, and decentralized applications shows Ethereum is being actively used rather than sitting idle in wallets;
• Price lagging behind fundamental metrics suggests the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap may be undervalued;
• Higher transaction volume increases gas consumption, and Ethereum's fee-burning mechanism accelerates ETH removal from circulation, generating sustained deflationary pressure.

CryptoOnchain concluded that if the trend persists, the price will likely catch up with the strong on-chain fundamentals over time. At the time of the original report, ETH was trading around $2,200, up 1.6% over 24 hours and 7.8% for the week.

Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin on Key Metrics

Analysts at XWIN Research Japan noted that elevated on-chain activity was among the factors helping ETH outpace Bitcoin in terms of price performance. In March, Ethereum gained 7.12% while Bitcoin rose just 1.83%.

«Why Ethereum Outperformed Bitcoin. ETH currently benefits from simultaneous capital inflow, supply tightening, and ecosystem growth. This positions Ethereum as a structurally stronger asset in the current phase.» — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com), original post

Ethereum's volatility stood at 62.8% compared to Bitcoin's 48.9%, reinforcing its status as a high-beta asset. Despite a strong correlation of approximately 0.94 between the two, ETH responds more aggressively to shifts in liquidity and risk appetite. XWIN Research Japan observed that investors increasingly view ETH as "leveraged Bitcoin," and that the altcoin could continue to outperform once market liquidity improves.

Capriole Oscillator Enters Capitulation Territory

The Capriole Macro Index Oscillator has dropped to -2.42, a deeply negative reading that has historically coincided with capitulation phases and subsequent trend reversals.

The indicator tracks investment behavior, cycle positioning, and on-chain data. Historical precedents are compelling:

• June–July 2022: ETH bottomed around $1,000–$1,200 with the oscillator at -2.2;
• October–November 2023: a reading of -1 coincided with a breakout after ETH fell to $1,500;
• April 2025: a negative reading marked a local bottom near $1,500, preceding a rally above $4,000.

The current setup mirrors those prior capitulation phases. ETH has declined from highs around $4,800 to $2,100, with the oscillator near cyclical lows. A potential reversal signal would be a price recovery to the $2,400–$2,500 range accompanied by the macro index moving back toward zero.

Derivatives Market Shows Early Recovery Signs

Analyst Darkfost highlighted the Ethereum taker buy/sell ratio, noting that on Binance it has turned positive for the first time in three years. The metric has held above 1 for several consecutive days at a level of 1.016, indicating a gradual return of buyer dominance in the perpetual futures segment.

«Ethereum derivatives show early signs of recovery. Despite a persistently uncertain macro environment, several signals point to a gradual improvement in Ethereum, particularly on the derivatives side. It has been nearly three years since such a setup was last observed…» — Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), original post

Darkfost emphasized the significance of this signal given that Binance accounts for over 37% of total open interest in ETH, making it a critical venue for gauging derivatives market positioning.

Separately, analyst crypto sunmoon had previously observed the taker buy/sell ratio trending upward over a four-to-five-month period. Combined with the current price drawdown, the structure resembles the configuration that preceded the April–May 2025 rally. CryptoQuant analysts also linked the broader April rally for both Bitcoin and Ethereum to the opening of new long positions in the perpetual futures market.