CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Rally Driven by New Longs in Perpetual Futures Market
CryptoQuant analysts attribute the BTC and ETH rally to massive new long positions opened in the perpetual futures market following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement.
Derivatives Market Powers BTC and ETH Price Surge
The recent price rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum has been fueled by a wave of new long positions in the perpetual futures market, according to analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Within 24 hours of Donald Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, Bitcoin gained approximately 4% while Ethereum surged 6%. This marked the strongest single-day move in over a month, breaking a prolonged downtrend.
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, identified derivatives market participants as the primary catalyst behind the move. Open interest (OI) on BTC perpetual contracts jumped by $2.1 billion, while ETH perpetuals saw a $2.2 billion increase within the same 24-hour window. Dollar-denominated OI for both assets reached its highest level in nearly a month.
According to Moreno, the synchronized OI spike reflects macro-event positioning as traders anticipate growing risk appetite. He emphasized that coin-denominated open interest also rose significantly, ruling out short liquidations as the primary driver and confirming the opening of net new long positions.
Original post by Julio Moreno — CryptoQuant Official (Telegram)
Buyers Return to the Market
Alongside the OI expansion, buying activity intensified across futures platforms. The Taker Buy Sell Ratio for both BTC and ETH climbed above 1.0, indicating buyer dominance and confidence in further upside.
Moreno noted that the coordinated bullish positioning across both major crypto assets confirms the market is pricing in a sustained improvement in macro conditions, at least in the near term.
US Investor Demand Rebounds
In parallel, demand from US-based investors has recovered. The Coinbase Premium Index for both Bitcoin and Ethereum turned positive after spending several weeks in negative territory.
Moreno suggested that if the ceasefire holds, it could sustain the current trend and amplify upward momentum.
Key Price Levels to Watch
Bitcoin has already broken above the critical $69,400 level — the lower realized price for traders, which had acted as a resistance zone for several weeks. If the asset maintains its position above this mark and geopolitical conditions remain stable, analysts at CryptoQuant point to the $79,000 area as the next target.
Historically, this level represents a bear market resistance zone and is considered the primary obstacle to a structural price recovery for Bitcoin.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin rally after the US-Iran ceasefire?
Following Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, traders opened massive new long positions in perpetual futures. BTC open interest surged by $2.1 billion and ETH by $2.2 billion within 24 hours. Bitcoin gained about 4% while Ethereum rose 6%.
What is open interest in crypto futures?
Open interest (OI) represents the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not been settled. Rising OI combined with price increases typically signals new long positions being opened and fresh capital flowing into the market.
What is the next Bitcoin price target according to CryptoQuant?
CryptoQuant analysts identify the $79,000 area as the next key target after Bitcoin broke above $69,400. Historically, this level serves as a bear market resistance zone and is considered the main hurdle for a structural price recovery.
Was the Bitcoin rally caused by short liquidations?
According to CryptoQuant, short liquidations were not the primary driver. Coin-denominated open interest also increased significantly, confirming that net new long positions were being opened rather than shorts being forced to close.
What does the Coinbase Premium Index indicate?
The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges. A positive reading suggests stronger buying demand from US investors. After several weeks in negative territory, the index turned positive for both BTC and ETH.
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