CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's Rally Above $73K Is a 'Dead Cat Bounce,' Not a Bull Market

Bitcoin Remains in Bear Territory Despite Recent Surge

Bitcoin's ascent above $73,000 is nothing more than a temporary relief rally, according to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The company's Bull Score Index remains pinned at 10 out of 100 — firmly in bearish territory — suggesting the broader downtrend has not reversed.

«Bitcoin is still in a bear market despite the recent rally. Our Bull Score Index remains at 10/100, deep in bearish territory. The current move is likely just a relief rally, not the start of a new bull phase.» — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com), original post

CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, stated that both fundamental and technical indicators continue to point toward a bearish trend. Should the rally persist, Bitcoin faces significant resistance at $79,000 and $90,000 — levels that correspond to traders' realized price and previously halted upward moves in mid-January.

Why This Matters

CryptoQuant's assessment draws on comprehensive on-chain and market data. If accurate, traders entering long positions at current levels risk being caught in a false breakout. A Bull Score of 10/100 represents one of the weakest readings in recent memory, sending a stark warning to market participants anticipating a sustained uptrend. The distinction between a genuine reversal and a dead cat bounce carries enormous implications for portfolio positioning.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Still Tethered to Tech Stocks

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes shares the cautious outlook. He argued that Bitcoin has yet to decouple from the performance of American SaaS technology stocks, reinforcing the view that the current price increase is merely a temporary bounce rather than the beginning of a sustained uptrend. Hayes believes the market remains in a risk zone and advises investors to exercise patience.

Selling Pressure Eases but Hasn't Vanished

Much of Bitcoin's recent strength stems from reduced selling activity. The spot market demand deficit narrowed from -136,000 BTC to -25,000 BTC. At the same time, interest from U.S.-based investors has picked up: the Coinbase premium turned positive for the first time since October of last year.

Both speculators and long-term holders have scaled back their selling. Unrealized losses among traders reached levels last seen in July 2022 — a threshold at which holders typically refuse to close positions at a loss. Realized volume from long-term holders dropped from 904,000 BTC in November to 276,000 BTC.

Institutional Flows: Whales Return to the Market

The institutional segment is showing renewed activity. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted a single-day inflow of $500 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs that nearly offset the cumulative outflows recorded since the start of the year. Positive flows were observed across 10 of the 11 leading funds.

«Another half bil day, with 10 of the 11 OGs getting love. YTD hole almost closed. Since Iran strike bitcoin and rise of geopolitical fear btc is up 12% and gold is down. So does that mean gold has failed as a safe haven and may be devoid of any purpose and vice-versa for btc?» — Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas), original post

Balchunas also noted that Bitcoin gained roughly 12% amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, while gold prices declined. However, the analyst cautioned against drawing hasty conclusions about shifts in safe-haven dynamics. Short-term price action, he argued, is also shaped by profit-taking, shifting investor sentiment, and fluctuations in institutional flows.

BTC/USDT hourly chart on Binance. Source: TradingView

Where Bitcoin Stands Now

At the time of the original report, Bitcoin was trading at $70,620, down 2.7% over the previous 24 hours. On March 4, the price briefly topped $74,000 but failed to hold. Analysts have previously identified a sustained break above that level as the key condition for a new rally to materialize.