CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Faces Profit-Taking Risk as Exchange Inflows Hit December 2025 Highs

Bitcoin Hits Key Resistance as Large Holders Prepare to Sell

Bitcoin's climb to $75,400 — its highest level since early February — is raising red flags across multiple on-chain indicators. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, highlighted several metrics pointing to growing selling pressure from large market participants.

«Bitcoin hit $76K resistance, and exchange inflows surged. ~11K BTC/hour moved to exchanges, the highest since Dec 2025 and above the March spike that preceded a pullback. Large holders are positioning to distribute into strength. Watch for selling pressure.» — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com), original post

On April 14, BTC broke above $75,400, driven by the asset's perceived undervaluation, easing US-Iran tensions, and a weakening US dollar. By press time the price had pulled back to $74,700 but remained near the critical $76,800 level — the trader realized price.

According to Moreno, during bearish phases the $76,800 mark serves as powerful resistance: as traders approach their breakeven point, they tend to offload coins, capping further upside. In January 2026, this exact band halted a bear market rally and sent prices lower. Should the pattern repeat, support would sit at the lower band around $67,600.

Why This Matters

Exchange inflows are among the most closely watched on-chain signals. Coins moving to trading platforms typically indicate intent to sell. The current spike to 11,000 BTC per hour marks the highest reading since late December 2025, surpassing the March peak of 9,000 BTC that preceded a short-term price decline.

The average deposit size has jumped to 2.25 BTC — a level not seen since July 2024. This surge is largely driven by individual large transfers to Binance exceeding 1,000 BTC. Moreno noted that a similar pattern emerged in January, when the average deposit approached 2 BTC just before bitcoin crashed from $100,000 to $60,000.

The share of large deposits in total exchange inflows also spiked dramatically — from 10% to 40% within just a few days. Historically, such readings have coincided with intensified short-term selling pressure.

Profit-Taking Has Not Peaked Yet

Despite the warning signs, the scale of profit realization remains moderate. Daily realized profit sits at approximately $500 million — well below the $1 billion threshold that typically signals a selling wave during bearish phases.

Moreno stated that if BTC holds above $76,000 or breaks through the trader realized price at $76,800, daily realized profit could surge to $1 billion and beyond, significantly amplifying selling pressure and increasing the probability of a rally stall or reversal.

Glassnode's data corroborates the trend of growing profit-taking. The 30-day EMA of the realized profit/loss ratio stands at 1.16, indicating investors are selling into strength.

«Approaching the Ceiling. $BTC holds ~$74K, ~5% below key $78K resistance. Spot and ETF demand improve, but profit-taking and cautious options positioning suggest a twitchy, flow-driven recovery lacking strong conviction.» — glassnode (@glassnode), original post

To sustainably break above $78,100 — identified by analysts as the key resistance — the market would need to absorb the accumulated supply overhang.

Whale Accumulation Limits Downside Potential

Bitfinex analysts point to a counterbalancing force. Over the past 30 days, whales have accumulated 270,000 BTC — the largest buying spree since 2013. Simultaneously, exchange reserves have fallen to multi-year lows.

«Whales accumulated 270,000 $BTC in 30 days, the largest buying spree since 2013. Exchange reserves are at their lowest since December 2017. The supply to meet new demand is shrinking.» — Bitfinex (@bitfinex), original post

The shrinking available supply creates a nuanced outlook. On one hand, the market becomes vulnerable to sharp moves — even relatively small sell orders can trigger significant volatility. On the other, sellers lack sufficient coins for sustained downward pressure, effectively capping the depth of any potential correction.

Previously, analysts at K33 identified signs of a bitcoin reversal following 68 days of consolidation.