Bitcoin Retreats Below $70,000 as Short-Term Holders Lock in Profits

Short-Lived Rally Fades Fast

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $74,000 level for the first time in a month, only to surrender those gains rapidly. By the evening of March 6, BTC had settled into a sideways range near $68,000, losing 4.1% over 24 hours. Ethereum fared even worse, dropping more than 5% and falling below $2,000.

BTC/USD hourly chart on Binance. Data: TradingView

The rally began on March 4 when BTC surged close to $72,000, eventually breaching $74,000 for the first time in a month. However, bulls were unable to defend those levels. Total crypto market capitalization declined 3.4% to approximately $2.4 trillion.

Crypto market dynamics. Source: CoinGecko

Why This Matters

The pullback coincided with an escalation in geopolitical risk. A statement from U.S. President Donald Trump ruling out any diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Iran triggered a spike in oil prices and a stronger dollar index, putting pressure on risk assets including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

The prospect of higher fuel costs intensified inflation fears and cast doubt on near-term Fed rate cuts. At the time of writing, fewer than 4% of market participants expected the central bank to lower rates at its upcoming March 18 meeting — half the proportion from just one week earlier.

Market expectations for Fed rate decision. Source: CME Group

Short-Term Holders and Whales Take Profits

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlighted significant profit-taking by short-term holders (STH) following Bitcoin's push to $74,000. Over 24 hours, this cohort sent 27,000 BTC to exchanges — one of the highest readings in recent months. The realized price for STH sits around $68,000.

"STH Selling Pressure Emerges Despite BTC Recovery. Over the past 24 hours, STHs have sent more than 27,000 BTC in profit to exchanges, which ranks among the highest levels observed in recent months." — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com), original post

According to Darkfost, the current news flow and macroeconomic outlook remain negative in the short term, making this behavior rational. STH are not yet willing to hold their positions longer, generating sustained sell-side pressure that warrants monitoring.

Santiment data corroborated the trend: whales holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC sold approximately 66% of their positions after Bitcoin crossed $70,000. Conversely, small retail investors (under 0.1 BTC) used the dip to accumulate.

Investor behavior by cohort. Source: Santiment

Santiment analysts warned that when retail participants buy while large players sell, it typically signals that the correction has further to run.

The Four-Year Cycle and Deeper Downside Risk

ZX Squared Capital founder CK Zheng told CoinDesk that Bitcoin is in the deepest phase of a bear market and conditions could worsen. He projected an additional 30% price decline over the course of 2026, citing the ongoing war with Iran as a catalyst.

Zheng pointed to halving-linked cycles as a key driver of the ongoing correction. Historically, BTC has peaked 12–18 months after each block reward halving, followed by roughly a year of prolonged decline. The fourth halving occurred in April 2024, and Bitcoin printed its all-time high above $126,000 eighteen months later in October 2025.

In Zheng's view, the momentum of the "four-year crypto cycle" is building and is extremely difficult to break due to the psychological behavior of individual investors. Bitcoin continues to trade as a speculative asset, having failed to establish itself as a safe haven like gold.

Zheng also cautioned against overstating institutional adoption. The combined share of crypto ETFs and digital asset management firms accounts for roughly 10% of the total market. Some of these entities may be forced to liquidate crypto holdings to meet debt servicing requirements under current conditions, potentially creating a vicious selling cycle.

Previously, CryptoQuant analysts characterized Bitcoin's surge to $74,000 as a short-lived bounce rather than the beginning of a new bull market.