MN Trading Founder Sees Bitcoin Reaching $100,000 by Q3 2026

Historical patterns point to a new all-time high within 12 months

MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe has published an analysis suggesting Bitcoin could set a new all-time high within the next 12 months. The trader draws on historical data showing that after comparable deep corrections, BTC has typically rallied 30–60% from its local bottom within a 3-to-6-month window.

"Statistically, after such a correction of Bitcoin, a new ATH is made within 12 months. Within 3-6 months, on every occasion of such an outlier, Bitcoin was trading 30-60% higher than the low. That would put $100K on the map in Q3 of 2026." — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), original post

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $76,256, up 1.3% over the previous 24 hours.

Why it matters

Van de Poppe's projection is grounded purely in price-action statistics rather than macroeconomic or fundamental catalysts. If the historical pattern repeats, it would imply more than 30% upside from current levels within a year — a meaningful return horizon for both institutional allocators and retail participants who accumulated near recent lows.

The broader backdrop adds weight to the thesis: on April 20, Bitcoin held the $75,000 level despite the collapse of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, demonstrating resilience against geopolitical shocks.

On-chain data: profitable supply grows with each cycle

Separately, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson highlighted an unusual dynamic in the ratio of Bitcoin's profitable versus loss-bearing supply.

"Supply in Profit vs. Supply in Loss in Bitcoin shows an incredible dynamic. In each cycle, Supply in Profit tends to be higher, indicating that being a Long-Term Holder has been a good strategy. There is also a mysterious trendline here." — Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson), original post

According to Wedson's observations, the share of coins sitting in profit increases with every market cycle. Simultaneously, the volume of supply held at a loss has been declining steadily — a trend that traces back to the 2018 market crash. In practical terms, fewer and fewer coins remain purchased above prevailing prices.

Wedson stressed that no other global asset exhibits such symmetrical and consistent supply behavior, which in his view makes Bitcoin a unique financial instrument.

Sharp exchange inflow spike raises short-term selling concerns

CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno flagged a sudden surge in Bitcoin deposits to centralized exchanges.

"Bitcoin exchange inflows have spiked in the last few hours. Most of that went to Coinbase." — Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno), original post

Rising exchange deposit volumes are commonly interpreted as a sign that holders are preparing to sell. The concentration of inflows on Coinbase may point to activity by U.S.-based institutional players, for whom the platform remains the primary on-ramp and off-ramp.

The market is therefore receiving mixed signals: historical patterns and supply structure suggest further upside potential, while exchange flow data hints at near-term selling pressure.