JPMorgan: Bitcoin Outperforms Gold as Safe Haven During Iran Crisis

JPMorgan analysts have concluded that Bitcoin is navigating the Iran military crisis better than gold and silver, according to The Block. While traditional safe-haven assets tumbled from record peaks, the leading cryptocurrency held its ground and attracted institutional capital.

Precious Metals Sink, Bitcoin Stands Firm

Gold has dropped 15%since the start of March. Rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar hit an already overheated market — prior to the selloff, gold had reached $5,500 and silver $120. Those record levels left both metals exposed to wave of profit-taking and forced liquidations.

Over three weeks, gold ETFs shed roughly $11 billion. Silver funds erased all gains accumulated since last summer. Bitcoin-based instruments, by contrast, pulled in $1.3 billion over the same period.

ETF flow comparison: gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Source: JPMorgan / The Block

JPMorgan's positioning proxy — based on CME open interest — showed heavy accumulation in gold and silver through late 2025 and early 2026, before turning lower in January. Bitcoin futures positioning remained stable throughout. Trend-following signals for precious metals fell from overbought territory into negative ground, signaling liquidations. Bitcoin's signals, meanwhile, are recovering from oversold levels back toward neutral — reflecting an improvement in sentiment.

Gold, historically more liquid than either silver or Bitcoin, ceded ground to the cryptocurrency in market breadth during this period. Silver suffered the steepest decline of the three, which JPMorgan analysts suggest may have amplified its price moves.

Liquidity Recovery: Iran and Global Markets

Following the outbreak of conflict, on-chain activity inside Iran surged as residents moved funds off local exchanges onto non-custodial wallets and international platforms. Globally, Bitcoin open interest climbed to $30 billion, according to CryptoQuant.

"Open interest surged to ~$30B as prices rallied. Binance led inflows, with BTC +$829M and ETH +$1.6B, while activity concentrated on top exchanges. Leverage is flowing into major venues, not broad market participation." — CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com), March 26, 2026

Activity on smaller exchanges remained muted. Capital was concentrating at the top of the market infrastructure, with Binance absorbing $829 million in Bitcoin and $1.6 billion in Ethereum.

On-Chain Activity Tells a Different Story

CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman flagged a concerning divergence: the number of active Bitcoin addresses has fallen 30% — from 938,609 to 655,908 — reaching the lowest level since August 2025.

"Bitcoin Is Cooling Internally: Active Addresses Have Fallen by More Than 30%. To validate a convincing structural recovery, it will not be enough to see price move higher; network activity will also need to return." — CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com), March 27, 2026

The 7-day moving average of active addresses dropped from 777,283 to 612,972 (-21.14%), while the 30-day average fell from 743,714 to 636,314 (-14.44%). Aleman noted that a bearish market amplifies this metric: when both price and participants decline simultaneously, the market loses not just value but real users. Any price recovery built on weak on-chain activity rests on a more fragile foundation than genuine expansion cycles.

BTC/USDT hourly chart, Binance. Source: TradingView

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $67,700, down 2.7% over the past 24 hours.

Record Options Expiry at Deribit

On March 27, Deribit processed the largest quarterly options expiry of 2026: Bitcoin options worth $13.46 billion and Ethereum options worth $2.12 billion.

"Quarterly Options Expiry Alert: $15.58B in crypto options set to expire on Deribit — the largest expiry in 2026 so far. BTC: 195,398 contracts | $13.46B notional | Max pain: $75K | Put/Call: 0.61. ETH: 1,026,462 contracts | $2.12B notional." — Deribit (@DeribitOfficial), March 26, 2026

The put/call ratio for Bitcoin stood at 0.56, indicating a substantial tilt toward bullish bets.

Why This Matters

JPMorgan labeling Bitcoin a superior safe haven during acute geopolitical stress marks a meaningful shift in institutional narrative. Gold has long held an unchallenged monopoly on that role. The ETF flow data and CME positioning behavior now suggest otherwise: in the sharpest phase of the crisis, capital moved toward Bitcoin rather than traditional metals. The on-chain weakness, however, is a reminder that the narrative still needs to be validated by a genuine recovery in network participation — not price action alone.