Hyperliquid Crosses $4 Trillion in Cumulative Volume, Begins Testing Prediction Markets

Decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid has crossed the $4 trillion mark in cumulative perpetual futures trading volume. The platform reached this milestone in three years, with the pace of each subsequent trillion accelerating significantly.

According to Reflexivity Research data, the first trillion took 733 days to accumulate, the second required 141 days, the third just 88 days, and the fourth trillion was reached in 141 days.

Token Burns and the Buyback Engine

The Hyperliquid Assistance Fund has surpassed $1 billion in cumulative buybacks within 15 months of the HYPE token launch. The project has permanently removed 41.71 million tokens from circulation — representing 4.17% of total supply. At current prices, these burned assets are valued at $1.35 billion.

Reflexivity Research analysts highlight the effectiveness of Hyperliquid's cyclical tokenomics: growing trading volumes generate higher fees, which are then used for buybacks and burns, steadily reducing HYPE's circulating supply.

HIP-4 Prediction Markets Enter Testnet

Hyperliquid's development team has deployed the HIP-4 protocol on testnet, introducing prediction markets as its core feature. The initial phase offers binary options based on HyperCore reference prices.

HIP-4 contracts are time-limited, fully collateralized, and operate within fixed price ranges — with no leverage and no liquidation risk. While the architecture supports multi-outcome markets, the mainnet launch will be limited to single-day binary options on Bitcoin and HYPE.

The primary objective of this phase is verifying technical reliability, auditing smart contracts, and stress-testing settlement processes. The API mirrors the spot market interface, and documentation is already publicly available. The team has encouraged the community to actively test and report bugs.

Why This Matters

Reaching $4 trillion in cumulative volume is a landmark achievement for decentralized derivatives trading. The accelerating growth rate signals a meaningful shift of liquidity from centralized exchanges to DEX platforms. The launch of prediction markets through HIP-4 expands Hyperliquid's product suite well beyond perpetual futures, positioning it as a competitor to dedicated prediction market protocols like Polymarket.

Arthur Hayes Targets $150 for HYPE

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes the HYPE token could surge from its current level around $34 to $150 by August. He identifies the migration of liquidity away from centralized exchanges (CEX) as the primary driver.

According to his calculations, Hyperliquid's annualized revenue would need to climb from the March figure of $843 million to $1.4 billion for this target to be realized. Hayes considers this achievable: the platform would need to capture roughly 4% additional market share in derivatives on top of its existing 6%.

Hyperliquid's economic model reinforces token demand — 97% of platform revenue is directed toward buying HYPE on the open market.

TradFi Instruments Gain Traction

Hayes also pointed to the surging popularity of macroeconomic instruments on Hyperliquid. Daily trading volume for crude oil perpetuals (CL-USDC) exceeded $1.29 billion, overtaking the ETH-USDC pair at $1.24 billion.

Contracts tracking oil, gold, silver, and U.S. equity indices already account for approximately 10% of Hyperliquid's revenue. Hayes projects that further growth in this segment could boost the exchange's earnings by 160% in the coming months.

Technical Analysis: Cup-and-Handle and Unlock Aftermath

The Maelstrom family fund, associated with Hayes, had previously and correctly predicted a HYPE price decline triggered by an $11.9 billion token unlock event. Since then, the asset has dropped approximately 40%.

"We warned about the unlock-driven correction" — Maelstrom Fund, original post

On the daily chart, HYPE is forming a cup-and-handle pattern. A decisive breakout above the $35.5 resistance level would open a short-term path toward $50. Should buyers fail to maintain momentum, a pullback toward support near $30 is likely — where the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-day exponential moving average converge.