Coinbase-Glassnode Report Shows Rising Optimism, but On-Chain Data Warns of BTC Drop to $74K

Institutional Investors See Bitcoin as Undervalued

Crypto exchange Coinbase and analytics platform Glassnode have released a joint report highlighting improved market sentiment amid shifting macroeconomic conditions. A survey of 100 institutional and retail investors revealed that approximately 73% of respondents view bitcoin's current price as undervalued.

"Original post" — Coinbase Institutional 🛡️ (@CoinbaseInsto), April 28, 2026

The net unrealized profit indicator has transitioned from a "fear" phase into an "optimism" phase, reinforcing the broader shift in market confidence.

Why This Matters

A collaborative report from a major exchange and a leading on-chain data provider offers a uniquely comprehensive view of market sentiment. The transition from fear to optimism on the net unrealized profit metric has historically preceded sustained growth phases. Meanwhile, structural changes in Ethereum supply — with speculative capital giving way to long-term holders — could lay the groundwork for the next leg up.

Ethereum Supply Structure Is Shifting

Analysts identified notable changes in ETH distribution during Q1. The volume of coins held by short-term holders declined by 38%, while long-term investor balances grew by 1%. This pattern suggests that speculators are exiting the market, leaving Ethereum increasingly concentrated among patient holders.

Coinbase maintains a stance of "cautious optimism" and expects most digital asset prices to recover within the current quarter.

ETF Funds Record Net Outflows

Despite the positive sentiment backdrop, SoSoValue data for April 28 revealed cooling interest in exchange-traded funds. Spot bitcoin ETFs registered net outflows of $89.68 million. BlackRock's IBIT fund led the losses, shedding $112.25 million.

Ethereum ETFs mirrored the trend with net outflows of $21.8 million. BlackRock's ETHA fund bore the heaviest losses at $13.17 million.

On-Chain Metrics Signal Potential Drop to $74,000

On-chain analyst Woominkyu flagged rising exchange reserves and whale activity as precursors to a possible bitcoin correction toward $74,000–$75,000.

"Exchange Inflow Spike: A Warning Sign or Just Noise? 'Unless this inflow is quickly absorbed, a retest of the $74K–$75K support zone is increasingly likely in the near term.' – By @Woo_Minkyu" — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com), original post

On April 27, net bitcoin inflows to exchanges reached 9,905 BTC — the highest level in 30 days. During this period, the price failed to hold above the $78,000 resistance level.

The Exchange Whale Ratio climbed to 0.7, meaning the top 10 largest transactions accounted for over 70% of all exchange deposits. According to the analyst, this indicates whales are positioning to sell.

Total exchange reserves also rose from 2.666 million BTC to 2.677 million BTC between April 25 and 28. Woominkyu argues that the accumulation of coins on platforms, combined with bitcoin's inability to break through $79,000, points to a market preparing for a downturn. Should buyers fail to absorb the emerging sell pressure, bitcoin could retest the $74,000–$75,000 support zone.

Strategy Identified as Key BTC Growth Driver

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan singled out Strategy as the primary catalyst behind bitcoin's recent rally. Over the past eight weeks, the firm purchased $7.2 billion worth of bitcoin, funded through the issuance of perpetual preferred shares (STRC) carrying an 11.5% dividend yield. The instrument is backed by the company's $63 billion bitcoin reserves.

Hougan believes Strategy will continue raising capital through STRC until its obligations reach 50% of crypto holdings. The current ratio stands at 33%.

On April 28, bitcoin pulled back to $76,337 after failing to sustain levels above $79,000. Analysts at Bernstein have previously identified $60,000 as a "clear floor" for the leading cryptocurrency.