Citigroup Cuts Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Targets for 2026

Citigroup has trimmed its year-end price targets for both leading cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin's target falls from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum's drops from $4,304 to $3,175. The revision was reported by CoinDesk, citing an internal bank report.

Why Citi Revised Its Crypto Forecasts

Analyst Alex Saunders, the report's author, attributed the downgrade to three factors: slower progress on a U.S. regulatory framework, declining on-chain activity, and reduced expectations for capital inflows into exchange-traded funds.

The bank cut its forecast for annual spot Bitcoin ETF demand to $10 billion and for Ethereum-based funds to $2.5 billion. Despite the cuts, Saunders still identifies ETF inflows as the primary potential catalyst for market growth, and puts the probability of relevant U.S. legislation passing this year at 60%.

Citigroup also outlined alternative scenarios. In a bull case driven by broad ETF adoption, Bitcoin could reach $165,000 and Ethereum $4,488. In a bear case marked by macroeconomic recession, Bitcoin could fall to $58,000 and Ethereum to $1,198.

For Ethereum specifically, Saunders flagged additional risks tied to weak network activity. Potential upside drivers include growth in the stablecoin market and expansion of the real-world asset tokenization sector.

Bitcoin Faces Resistance at $75K–$85K

CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno warned that Bitcoin could encounter significant resistance at $75,000 and $85,000, even as trader sentiment turns bullish ahead of the Fed meeting.

Long positions dominate the perpetual futures market. The $75,000 level aligns with the lower boundary of traders' realized price — a zone that has historically acted as resistance in bear markets. The next barrier near $85,000 previously capped price action in January and October.

Moreno noted a shift in market behavior: the rally above $70,000 triggered short liquidations rather than new long openings. Funding rates support the bullish reading — since March 15, Bitcoin funding has flipped from extremely negative to positive, meaning traders are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions. The same dynamic is playing out in Ethereum.

Still, the analyst flagged a selling pressure risk: on March 16, the hourly volume of Bitcoin deposits to exchanges hit 6,100 BTC — the highest since February 20 — with large transfers accounting for 63% of the total.

Open Interest Points to a Sustainable Ethereum Uptrend

CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain examined 30-day changes in Ethereum open interest across major venues and concluded the current uptrend reflects sustained momentum rather than a short-term bounce.

«This trend in open interest indicates sustained liquidity inflows into the derivatives market, supporting the stability of Ethereum's uptrend rather than indicating a temporary move» — @ArabxChain via CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com), original post

The breakdown by platform reveals a divergent picture:

• Bybit: open interest surged by 2.51 million ETH, signaling a liquidity redistribution;
• Binance: grew by 11,400 ETH, confirming continued interest in the asset;
• Bitfinex and Kraken: recorded outflows of 35,700 ETH and 4,300 ETH respectively;
• Gate: activity remains minimal.

According to Arab Chain, this divergence reflects cautious positioning: some traders are closing positions to reduce risk while others are concentrating activity on larger platforms. The elevated aggregate open interest, in his view, signals investor conviction and provides fundamental support for Ethereum's bullish momentum.