Bitcoin Briefly Touches $74,000 for First Time in a Month, but Bearish Signals Persist

BTC Reclaims $74,000 for the First Time in a Month

On March 4, bitcoin briefly climbed above the $74,000 mark — a level it hadn't reached in over a month. At the time of writing, BTC was trading near $72,090, up 6% over the preceding 24 hours.

BTC/USDT hourly chart on Binance. Source: TradingView

Ethereum outpaced bitcoin with a 7.5% gain to $2,113. ETH tested a local high above $2,200 before pulling back slightly.

ETH/USDT hourly chart on Binance. Source: TradingView

Among the top 50 assets by market cap, Dogecoin and Zcash led the rally. DOGE rose more than 8%, settling above $0.09, while ZEC gained 9% to reach $235, recovering from its February lows.

Why This Matters

The bounce follows a prolonged downturn. K33 Research analysts highlighted that bitcoin had recently hit record oversold levels after six consecutive weeks and five consecutive months of decline.

Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin pointed to institutional demand as a key driver of the recovery, noting that bitcoin outperformed the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and gold during the recent crisis — a divergence he views as a positive signal. Puckrin added that inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $680 million since March 2, as large investors turn to crypto as a hedge amid geopolitical instability.

Crypto-related equities surged alongside digital assets:

• Coinbase jumped 15% to $210;
• Gemini rallied 34% to $8.70 after bouncing from lows below $6;
• Galaxy Digital climbed nearly 18% to $24.40;
• Mining companies Bitfarms, IREN, American Bitcoin, and Hut 8 each gained roughly 13%.

Derivatives Market Flashes Bearish Signals

Despite the spot-price recovery, traders continue to hedge aggressively. Put-option premiums exceeded call-option premiums by 10% — well above the 6% threshold typical of neutral market conditions.

At the same time, demand for bullish bitcoin futures has stagnated, with the annualized premium dropping below the 5% baseline. This dynamic reflects lingering caution after the early-February sell-off.

Percentage of bitcoin supply held at a loss. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode data shows that 43% of bitcoin's circulating supply is currently held at a loss, up from 30% at the end of January. Traders fear that a price recovery will trigger selling as underwater holders rush to break even, creating overhead resistance.

Miner Pressure Adds to Headwinds

Mining economics present another challenge. The hashprice index has fallen to $30 per TH/s per day, down from $39 three months ago.

Bitcoin hashprice index. Source: Hashrate Index

Mining profitability has dropped to historic lows amid high electricity costs. Publicly traded miners are liquidating BTC reserves and repurposing infrastructure for artificial intelligence workloads.

Key Levels and Market Sentiment

A critical resistance zone sits at $76,000 — the average purchase price of bitcoin held by Strategy, which owns 720,737 BTC. Some market participants have an incentive to keep prices below this level: a sustained move above it would allow Strategy to issue new shares for additional bitcoin purchases without diluting existing shareholders.

A full recovery to the January high of $78,700 may take longer than the market anticipates. A decisive break above that level would shift momentum back to the bulls.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Source: Alternative

The crypto sentiment index has risen from 10 to 22 points but remains firmly in "extreme fear" territory. Earlier in March, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck stated that bitcoin's price was approaching a local bottom.