Bitcoin Miner Position Index Hits Record Low Amid Rare Blockchain Reorganization

Miners pull back from selling as MPI nears all-time low

The Bitcoin Miner Position Index (MPI) has plunged to -1.04 — the third-lowest reading in the metric's entire history. CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente flagged the development, calling it a bullish signal for the market.

«Extreme Miner Inactivity: A Hidden Strength or Silent Warning? Historically, the signal becomes more actionable when MPI begins to rise from these lows, indicating re-engagement alongside improving market conditions.» — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com), original post

An MPI reading this low indicates that miners are sending far fewer coins to exchanges relative to their annual average. Sell-side pressure from this cohort is structurally subdued.

Why it matters

According to Moreno de Vicente, an extremely low MPI signals a contraction in supply from some of the most consistent natural sellers in the Bitcoin market. In past cycles, comparable readings appeared during miner stress periods or post-capitulation phases — often against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty and shrinking profit margins.

However, the analyst cautions that reduced selling pressure alone does not reliably mark an absolute price bottom. MPI captures relative seller behavior but does not reveal who is absorbing the supply. Without clear demand expansion — via spot inflows, ETF inflows, or derivatives positioning — a low MPI on its own cannot sustain an upward price move.

The signal becomes more actionable when MPI starts climbing from its lows, suggesting miners are re-engaging as market conditions improve.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading near $71,000, up 3.9% over the preceding 24 hours.

Hourly BTC/USDT chart on Binance. Source: TradingView

Rare two-block reorganization hits the Bitcoin network

Alongside the MPI drop, the Bitcoin blockchain experienced an uncommon event — a two-block reorganization. The incident centered on Foundry USA, currently the largest mining pool.

«We just had a rare-ish two block fork/reorg between Foundry and AntPool+ViaBTC. Foundry mined six blocks in a row.» — b10c (@0xB10C), original post

On March 23, Foundry and AntPool discovered valid blocks at height 941,881 just 12 seconds apart (15:49:35 and 15:49:47 UTC). The chain temporarily split, with some nodes accepting one block and some the other.

At the next height, ViaBTC extended AntPool's branch while Foundry continued building on its own. This created two competing chains, each two blocks deep. Foundry then secured heights 941,883 and 941,886, giving its version a decisive proof-of-work advantage. The blocks produced by AntPool and ViaBTC were orphaned — dropped from the canonical chain — and those miners forfeited the associated block rewards.

Transactions from the orphaned blocks returned to the mempool and were subsequently included in later blocks. Network security was not compromised; Bitcoin operated as designed, selecting the longest chain and restoring consensus within minutes.

Hashrate concentration amplifies reorganization risk

The reorg episode underscored the risks tied to mining centralization. As fewer pools control a greater share of the hashrate, the probability that a single pool mines several consecutive blocks increases — and with it, the chance of competing forks when large players find blocks simultaneously.

Mining economics are compounding the problem. On March 21, mining difficulty fell 7.76% — the second-largest negative adjustment of 2026. The network hashrate retreated from a record 1 ZH/s to roughly 920 EH/s. With BTC priced around $70,000 and estimated production cost at $88,000, mining has turned unprofitable for many participants. Smaller and mid-sized operators are exiting, further concentrating the remaining hashrate among fewer large pools.

For context, on March 9 the volume of yet-to-be-mined Bitcoin reached the 1 million BTC mark. The remaining coins will not be fully mined until approximately 2140.