Bitcoin Slides Below $72,000 as Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle East Escalation

BTC loses 4% in 24 hours amid geopolitical and macro turmoil

Bitcoin broke below the $72,000 level on March 18, shedding nearly 4% in a single day. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading around $71,300 — a sharp reversal from the previous day's test of $75,000, which had marked the highest level since early February.

BTC/USDT hourly chart on Binance. Source: TradingView

Altcoins suffered even steeper losses. Ethereum fell 7%, Solana declined 5.8%, and XRP dropped 4.3%.

Performance of major cryptocurrencies. Source: CoinGecko

Total liquidations over the past 24 hours reached $389 million, with $335 million hitting long positions.

Liquidation volume. Source: CoinGlass

Why this matters

The crypto sell-off was triggered by a potent combination of geopolitical escalation and unfavorable macroeconomic data. The conflict between Iran, the U.S., and Israel intensified after Washington and Jerusalem launched extensive strikes against Tehran's energy infrastructure. Bloomberg reported that equipment at the South Pars oil and gas field was damaged. U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at further escalation, while Western media outlets have largely ruled out a diplomatic resolution.

Brent crude surged nearly 5% to approach $110 per barrel, while WTI climbed 2.2% to $97.7. Such a spike in energy prices heightens inflation fears and shifts market expectations around monetary policy.

Adding to the pressure, the February Producer Price Index (PPI) report came in far hotter than expected. The headline figure rose 0.7% — more than double the 0.3% forecast and above January's 0.5% reading. Core PPI increased 0.5% versus the expected 0.3%, though it did decelerate from the prior month's 0.8%. Crucially, these numbers do not yet reflect the impact of strikes on Iran and the subsequent oil price spike.

Fed rate cuts off the table

The FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 18. Market participants are nearly unanimous in expecting the Fed to hold rates steady. Moreover, most traders do not anticipate any rate cuts until at least September.

Fed rate probability. Source: CME FedWatch

Rate expectations for upcoming FOMC meetings. Source: CME FedWatch

Analysts at QCP noted that markets have sharply repriced rate-cut expectations. Expensive oil complicates the path to easing even as growth and employment data deteriorate. For crypto, this means the interest rate environment is becoming tighter, not more accommodative.

Analyst views: what's next for Bitcoin?

Alphractal founder Joao Wedson warned that if the $69,000–$70,000 zone fails to hold, a drop below $60,000 becomes likely. To invalidate this bearish scenario, BTC would need to reclaim $78,000.

"BTC can't drop below $69K~$70K because, unfortunately, I have to say there may soon be a high chance of seeing it below $60K. But it needs to somehow move above $78K to break this expectation." — Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson), original post

Analyst CW flagged a wave of high-leverage long liquidations and cautioned about a potential dip to $71,000.

"High-leverage long positions on $BTC are being liquidated. You should be prepared for a drop to around 71k." — CW (@CW8900), original post

MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe attributed the correction to the macroeconomic calendar and the upcoming FOMC meeting. He views the pullback as a rejection at resistance and expects BTC to recover toward the $76,000–$80,000 range by month's end.

"#Bitcoin correcting. This could be due to the upcoming macroeconomic week with the FOMC Meeting tonight. Very likely to be risk-off going into that one given that oil has skyrocketed." — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), original post

Earlier, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost had pointed to a return of Bitcoin buyers on leading exchanges, signaling a potential resurgence in demand that preceded the current pullback.