Why a Deep Bitcoin Correction Is Becoming Less Likely, According to Analysts

The 2024 crypto bull run was notably more subdued compared to previous cycles. According to MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe, this characteristic significantly reduces the likelihood of a deep bear market ahead.

Shallow Rally, Shallow Correction

Van de Poppe highlighted that Bitcoin's latest bullish phase lacked the explosive upside typically seen in prior cycles — no extreme returns and no parabolic price curves.

«This is a funny chart. The previous bull run in 2024 on #Bitcoin has been significantly shallow. It means that we haven't seen the upside volatility that we almost always get: heavy upwards returns and a parabolic curve. Given that we haven't seen that, the likelihood of a…» — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), original post

The analyst noted that most indicators are currently sitting at their lows, making it a compelling time to take bullish positions. He expects markets to transition into a positive trend over the next 12 to 24 months.

Why This Matters

Bitcoin's cyclical behavior serves as a core framework for market participants. If the current bull cycle was indeed muted, it challenges traditional forecasting models. A less aggressive upside potentially translates to a less painful downside, which could reshape strategies for both institutional and retail investors navigating the months ahead.

Long-Term Holders Refuse to Sell

On-chain analyst Darkfrost observed that amid recent heightened volatility, certain market participants have remained remarkably composed, choosing to watch rather than react.

«📊 While volatility is in full swing across the markets and everyone seems to be reacting, some participants remain calm and simply observe. According to Coin Value Days Destroyed, long term holders (LTHs) have become very inactive and appear to prefer holding their Bitcoin…» — Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), original post

The Coin Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric reveals that long-term holders (LTHs) have become extremely inactive, opting to hold rather than sell. CVDD builds on the classic Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator by incorporating a value component, enabling a more nuanced assessment of whether LTH activity is meaningfully impacting the market.

With CVDD currently at approximately 0.34, the spending behavior of long-term holders mirrors levels typically seen during bear markets — periods when this cohort strongly favors accumulation and holding. Darkfrost noted that in the previous cycle, local tops formed when CVDD exceeded 2, reflecting significant selling pressure from LTHs.

The Critical $63,700 Level

Alphractal founder Joao Wedson warned that Bitcoin must defend the $63,700 level. A breakdown below this on-chain support could trigger another leg down.

«Bitcoin cannot lose $63,700 ⚠️ If this key on-chain level breaks, it could trigger a new downside move in the market. The next risk levels would be: • $57,000 • $52,400 • $48,700 (worst-case scenario) It is important to note that these levels are dynamic and update daily…» — Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson), original post

Wedson calculated the following Fibonacci-based risk levels:

• $57,000
• $52,400
• $48,700 — worst-case scenario

These levels are dynamic and update daily based on investor behavior, the analyst clarified. When the market loses key structural levels, it often marks the beginning of a new redistribution phase.

Investor Inflows Recovering

Analyst Willy Woo pointed out that despite Bitcoin's local pullback from $70,000, investor capital inflows have been steadily recovering since mid-February. At the same time, the VIX (expected volatility index) on equities markets hints at a potential shift toward a risk-on environment in the coming weeks.

Woo suggested that Bitcoin dropped too quickly given the early stage of the bear market and current conditions. He sees a potential resumption of crypto market growth by the end of April, though this hinges on liquidity inflows.

Previously, CryptoQuant analysts characterized Bitcoin's bounce to $74,000 as a short-lived relief rally rather than the start of a new bull market.