Five-Year Bitcoin DCA Strategy Delivered 72% Net Profit, Outpacing S&P 500

Weekly $250 Purchases Since 2021 Yielded 72.4% Returns

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) simulations reveal that consistently buying Bitcoin for a fixed amount regardless of market conditions delivers double-digit returns over a five-year horizon.

According to the calculations, investing $250 weekly starting in January 2021 would have resulted in total contributions of $65,500. Over this period, an investor would have accumulated 1.59 BTC at an average purchase price of $41,027. At the current price of approximately $70,700, the portfolio's market value stands at $112,920 — a net profit of 72.4%.

At the cycle's peak in October 2025, when Bitcoin traded around $126,000, the value of these holdings would have reached $187,500. By comparison, passively holding coins over the same five years would have yielded an average annual return of just 18%.

Why This Matters

DCA is widely regarded as one of the most accessible investment approaches for retail participants because it eliminates the need to time market entries. The simulation results confirm that even amid Bitcoin's notorious volatility, a disciplined schedule of regular purchases can generate meaningful returns. These findings are particularly relevant during the current market correction, when many investors question whether continued buying makes sense.

Entry Point Matters on Shorter Timeframes

Analysis of a shorter investment window highlights how much the starting point affects outcomes. Weekly $250 purchases beginning in January 2024 would have totaled $26,250 in contributions. Under this scenario, an investor would have accumulated 0.33 BTC at an average cost basis of $77,247. The current portfolio value sits at roughly $24,000 — an 8.3% loss.

However, if Bitcoin recovers to $100,000, that portfolio would be worth $33,900. At the cycle's peak valuation, the figure would climb to $38,500.

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500: DCA Performance Compared

Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston previously compared DCA performance between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index over a five-year stretch.

"The S&P 500 has now outperformed Bitcoin by over 4x in the last 5 years. Even after 2 massive Bitcoin crashes in the last 5 years, you still would have outperformed the S&P by almost 20% by DCAing. $100 DCA: SPY: $37,470 (profit +$11,370, +43.6%) Bitcoin: $42,508 (profit…" — Adam Livingston (@AdamBLiv), original post

With weekly $100 contributions, the Bitcoin DCA strategy produced $42,508, while the same approach applied to the S&P 500 generated $37,470. That translates to returns of 62.9% versus 43.6%, respectively. According to Livingston, regularly buying Bitcoin during drawdowns has historically delivered higher cumulative returns despite the asset's sharp price swings.

The same pattern holds when scaling up to $250 per week over five years: Bitcoin again outperforms the S&P 500 on a return basis. Gold, however, leads both assets in this particular comparison.

In early March, Bitcoin's price climbed above $74,000 for the first time in a month. Analysts at CryptoQuant characterized the move as a short-term bounce.