Michael Terpin Forecasts Bitcoin Cycle Bottom at $57,000 by October 2026

Historical Averages Point to a 12-Month Peak-to-Trough Timeline

Investor Michael Terpin told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin could reach its cycle low at $57,000 in October 2026. His projection relies on the historical average duration between a cycle peak and subsequent trough — roughly 12 months. Terpin identifies the October 2025 high above $126,000 as the current cycle's top.

According to Terpin, a return to the bull market requires BTC to reclaim $100,000. That scenario would depend on the price dipping below the 200-week moving average — a critical support level. He considers this outcome unlikely, noting that reaching $100,000 this year would require strong ETF demand, continued accumulation by Michael Saylor's Strategy, and the absence of cascading liquidations during sharp drops.

Why This Matters

Terpin's forecast aligns with views from several other market participants, creating a growing consensus around a potential autumn bottom. When multiple independent analysts converge on the same timeframe, it can shape institutional positioning and capital flows in the months ahead.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed to the same cyclical window:

"Should Bitcoin continue with the most remarkable cyclic patterns of any market in the past 15 years, an investable low is scheduled for Sep/Oct 2026. That low might or might not penetrate the Feb 2026 low. The next high (should patterns continue) will be between $300k and $500k…" — The Factor Report (@PeterLBrandt), original post

Analyst Matthew Hyland added that investors broadly lack conviction in the current recovery. He observed that market participants are largely interpreting price action through the lens of their own biases, and that bearish calls during rallies signal widespread disbelief.

"It does appear to me the larger expected consensus outcome for #BTC is another leg lower by October. There does not seem to be much euphoria or interest; many just projecting it to fit their bias. Therefore the calls for lower whilst price rallies is a sign of disbelief" — Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_), original post

Current Market Snapshot

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $77,800, down 0.3% over the past 24 hours. Overnight on April 27, the price touched a local high of $79,400 before pulling back sharply.

Ethereum slipped 0.2% to $2,300. Most top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap saw corrections within 0.5%.

The Fear and Greed Index exited a prolonged fear phase, shifting toward neutral territory.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and easing geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds. Bitcoin-based products attracted $823 million in net inflows over the past week.

Dominick John of Zeus Research commented that the market is returning to moderate risk-on positioning. Min Jung, a research fellow at Presto Research, noted that investors have grown fatigued by Middle East headlines and are now focused on the FOMC meeting scheduled for April 29.

Powell's Potential Final FOMC Meeting

Markets fully price in a hold on the federal funds rate at the upcoming session. Market commentator Nic Puckrin highlighted that this could be Jerome Powell's last FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, with his term expiring in May.

"Wednesday is Powell's almost certain last FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. Rate decision is almost certainly a hold flat. Unfortunately, no dot-plot released at this meeting so we won't have a sense of which way the FOMC is tilting for future cuts. We'll have to wait for the June…" — Nic (@nicrypto), original post

The absence of an updated dot-plot at this meeting means the market will need to wait until June for clarity on the Fed's forward guidance. This leaves an additional layer of uncertainty hanging over crypto assets in the near term.