Bitcoin Analysts Forecast Bearish Phase Before Potential Surge to $1 Million

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has published a detailed argument for Bitcoin eventually reaching $1 million per coin. At the same time, multiple on-chain analysts point to metrics suggesting the early stages of a bear market and potential short-term price declines.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Road to $1 Million

In his research note, Hougan framed Bitcoin as a direct competitor to gold within the global store-of-value market. That segment currently stands at approximately $38 trillion, with gold accounting for $36 trillion and Bitcoin for $1.4 trillion. The leading cryptocurrency's share remains below 4%, and reaching $1 million per coin would require capturing more than 50% of the market.

Hougan argued that the biggest mistake investors make is underestimating how much the store-of-value sector itself can grow. Gold's market cap stood at just $2.5 trillion in 2004 and expanded to $40 trillion over the following two decades — a compound annual growth rate of 13%. That expansion was driven by rising sovereign debt in developed nations, geopolitical instability, and accommodative monetary policy.

If that trajectory continues, the total store-of-value market could surpass $121 trillion within ten years. Under those conditions, Bitcoin would need only a 17% share to justify a $1 million price tag.

Hougan's thesis is bolstered by structural shifts already underway: spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have become the fastest-growing funds in history, institutional players are ramping up allocations, and Bitcoin's long-term volatility continues to decline. Where professional managers once allocated roughly 1% of portfolios to crypto, that figure now reaches up to 5%. Hougan acknowledged risks — growth could stall, and Bitcoin might lose ground to alternative assets. Yet under his base scenario of continued fiat debasement, the $1 million forecast could even prove conservative.

Why This Matters

The divergence between long-term structural bullishness and short-term bearish on-chain signals creates a complex landscape for both retail and institutional participants. Investment horizon becomes the critical variable: those planning in years see fundamental undervaluation, while short-term traders face mounting bearish pressure. The data from funding rates and supply-in-loss metrics suggest the market may need to absorb significant pain before the next sustained rally.

Arthur Hayes Expects a Drop Below $60,000

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has taken a far more cautious near-term stance. He stated that if he had just $1 to invest, he would not buy Bitcoin right now.

"Where is Bitcoin headed next? @CryptoHayes latest takes might surprise you. Full show streaming now" — Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (@natbrunell), original post

Hayes is waiting for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy and restart its liquidity engine before entering the market. In the near term, he anticipates broad sell-offs across equities and crypto driven by geopolitical tensions, with Bitcoin potentially falling below $60,000. His medium-term outlook, however, remains positive — he expects prices to surpass $100,000 in the coming years.

On-Chain Data Points to Early Bear Market

CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu highlighted that the share of Bitcoin's supply held at a loss has climbed to 40–45%, a level he interprets as signaling market weakness and the early phase of a bearish trend.

"Supply in Loss is increasing, indicating rising market stress. But if historical patterns repeat, the current level may represent the early phase of a bear market rather than the final bottom." — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com), original post

Historically, similar readings coincided with deep corrections or cycle transitions — comparable patterns appeared in 2015, 2019, and 2022. A rising supply in loss means more holders are underwater, adding to overall market stress. Woominkyu noted that the ultimate bottom has not yet formed: in past cycles, it materialized only after the loss share exceeded 50%.

Analyst Ted Pillows echoed this assessment, pointing to Bitcoin's monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) as confirmation that the cycle bottom remains ahead.

"$BTC monthly RSI is indicating that a cycle bottom hasn't happened. IMO, when monthly RSI drops below 40, a cycle bottom will occur." — Ted (@TedPillows), original post

Funding Rate Hits Lowest Level Since Early 2023

Adding to the bearish signals, Bitcoin's 30-day funding rate percentile has plunged to 6% — its lowest reading since early 2023, according to analyst RugaResearch.

"Funding Rate 30D Percentile at 6%. The Lowest Reading Since Early 2023. At 6%, almost every single day in the past month had higher funding than right now." — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com), original post

Sellers dominate the derivatives market, with short traders paying long holders to maintain positions for nearly two straight weeks. This marks a sharp reversal from January, when the average daily funding rate stood at +0.005% and the percentile generally held above 80%. In February, the average rate dropped to -0.003%, and by March it fell further to -0.004%. Over the past 30 days, the rate was negative on 25 of them. The most extreme reading of -0.021% was recorded on February 6, with similar drops below -0.01% on February 25, February 28, and March 4.

RugaResearch emphasized that the 6% percentile reflects a severe imbalance, but such one-sided trader consensus rarely leads to a smooth decline. More often, it precedes a sharp spike in volatility.