Bernstein Forecasts Prediction Markets to Reach $1 Trillion by 2030

Prediction Platforms Poised for Trillion-Dollar Volumes

Prediction markets are rapidly expanding beyond traditional sports betting territory. Analysts at Bernstein estimate that combined trading volumes on these platforms could reach $1 trillion by 2030, according to CNBC.

The key growth catalysts, according to experts, include regulatory clarity at the federal level, partnerships with major corporations, and a structural advantage over conventional bookmakers in available liquidity.

Bernstein noted that federal-level regulatory acceptance — as opposed to the traditional state-by-state approach — is broadening the sector's reach. Blockchain-based tokenization and crypto integration provide global liquidity, enable long-duration contracts, and attract institutional participation.

While individual state authorities have recently intensified oversight of prediction platforms, the CFTC has asserted its "exclusive jurisdiction" over the space and announced plans to develop unified federal rules.

Why This Matters

Prediction markets sit at the intersection of crypto, finance, and regulation. A shift from fragmented state-level oversight to federal regulation could fundamentally reshape the online betting landscape in the United States. For the crypto industry, the growth of prediction platforms translates into greater on-chain liquidity and institutional capital inflows. Major brokers like Robinhood and Coinbase are already integrating these services, making them accessible to millions of retail investors.

Sports as a Gateway

Prediction market trading volumes tripled in 2025, reaching $51 billion. The surge in popularity began during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, after which user interest shifted toward crypto assets, macroeconomics, and political events.

Since the start of 2026, combined volumes for sector leaders Polymarket and Kalshi have already surpassed $60 billion. Bernstein expects this figure to climb to $240 billion by December and ultimately reach $1 trillion by 2030.

Sports currently dominates at 61% of total betting volume. Analysts attribute this to restrictions on online bookmakers and fragmented state-level regulations. However, they view sports betting merely as an "entry point" rather than the end goal for platform audiences. Long-term sector prospects are tied to contracts on crypto assets, macroeconomic indicators, and political events.

Bernstein emphasized that the institutional market will grow around economic, business, and political contracts — investors need more direct and dedicated access to such outcomes. Corporations and insurance companies will also seek to hedge risks related to specific scenarios.

Revenue Projections and Monetization

Analysts project that prediction market annual recurring revenue (ARR) will grow from $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026, fueled by new user acquisition and optimized monetization models. Polymarket has already moved away from zero-fee trading, and its current ARR stands at $420 million. By the end of 2030, cumulative sector revenue is expected to reach $10.8 billion.

Robinhood and Asymmetric Upside

Bernstein highlighted Robinhood and Coinbase as critical distribution channels for prediction markets. Robinhood's embedded platform, built on Kalshi infrastructure, reached an ARR of approximately $350 million within a year of launch.

The analysts identified "asymmetric upside" potential for HOOD shares, supported by two factors: projected expansion of the prediction segment and "high conviction" in a crypto industry recovery. Weak Q1 results are already priced into the stock, which has declined roughly 50% since the end of 2025. Investor sentiment is expected to improve as trading volumes recover in coming months.

Bernstein forecasts prediction market revenue for Robinhood growing from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026 — representing 17% of transactional revenue and 10% of total earnings. The current year is expected to be rich in catalysts: the U.S. hosts the FIFA World Cup this summer, and political activity will intensify in the second half ahead of midterm elections.