Samson Mow Predicts Bitcoin Rally as Gold Market Becomes Overextended
KrakenEXCHANGEJAN3 CEO Samson Mow argues Bitcoin is significantly undervalued relative to gold and global money supply. Historical BTC/gold Z-score data points to a potential major rally ahead.
Bitcoin Trails Its Trend by 24-66%
JAN3 CEO Samson Mow has flagged what he sees as a significant undervaluation of Bitcoin relative to both gold's market capitalization and the global money supply. According to Mow, the leading cryptocurrency is trading 24-66% below its trend levels against these benchmarks, while the gold market appears overextended.
«Bitcoin is ~24-66% below its trend relative to gold's market cap or global money supply, while gold is overextended. When the BTC/gold ratio's Z-score drops below -2, it has always preceded major rallies. Mean reversion is the most probable move next. 🚀» — Samson Mow (@Excellion), original post
Mow drew attention to the Z-score of the BTC/gold ratio — a metric that measures how far the current price deviates from its historical average. Negative readings typically signal undervaluation. The Z-score currently stands at -1.24.
Why This Matters
Historical precedent lends weight to Mow's thesis. Every time the BTC/gold Z-score has dropped below -2, a substantial Bitcoin rally followed.
In November 2022, amid the FTX exchange collapse, the index fell below -3. Over the following 12 months, Bitcoin surged more than 150%. A similar pattern emerged in March 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic crashed global markets. The metric dipped below -2, and Bitcoin found a bottom near $3,700. The asset then climbed 300% over the next year, reaching an all-time high near $69,000 by November 2021.
Gold Rush Hits the RWA Sector
Growing demand for precious metals as a safe-haven asset is directly reshaping the tokenized real-world assets (RWA) segment. The market capitalization of tokenized gold has surpassed $6 billion, with daily trading volume reaching $1.55 billion.
Two gold-backed stablecoins dominate this space: XAUT with a $3 billion market cap and PAXG at $2.5 billion.
Perp DEXs Pivot Toward Safe-Haven Assets
The capital rotation into safe-haven instruments is also clearly visible on decentralized perpetual exchanges. On-chain data from Hyperliquid shows that perpetual contracts on tokenized gold and silver have become the top performers by trading volume.
At the time of writing, gold and silver are trading at $5,410 and $95.62, respectively.
Traders are actively leveraging HIP-3 markets to hedge their portfolios with traditional assets without leaving the DeFi ecosystem. Earlier in February, Kraken launched 24/7 trading of perpetual futures on tokenized assets, while Wintermute introduced OTC trading for tokenized gold — both developments underscoring the accelerating convergence of traditional safe-haven instruments with crypto infrastructure.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the BTC/gold Z-score?
The BTC/gold Z-score measures how far Bitcoin's price deviates from its historical average relative to gold. Negative values suggest Bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold. Historically, readings below -2 have preceded major Bitcoin rallies.
What is the current BTC/gold Z-score?
According to Samson Mow, the BTC/gold Z-score currently sits at -1.24. For context, it dropped below -3 during the FTX collapse in November 2022, and below -2 during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020 — both instances preceded massive Bitcoin price increases.
What are the largest tokenized gold tokens?
The two dominant tokenized gold assets are XAUT (Tether Gold) with a $3 billion market cap and PAXG (Pax Gold) at $2.5 billion. The total tokenized gold category has surpassed $6 billion in market capitalization with $1.55 billion in daily trading volume.
Why does Samson Mow think Bitcoin is undervalued?
Mow argues Bitcoin is trading 24-66% below its trend relative to gold's market cap and global money supply, while gold itself appears overextended. He believes mean reversion — a return to historical averages — is the most probable next move for the BTC/gold ratio.
Where can you trade tokenized gold perpetual contracts?
Tokenized gold and silver perpetual contracts are actively traded on Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange where they have become volume leaders. Traders use HIP-3 markets to hedge with traditional assets while staying within the DeFi ecosystem.
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