Galaxy Digital: Quantum Computing Threat to Bitcoin Is Overstated

Quantum Fears: Overblown but Not Baseless

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, told CoinDesk that concerns surrounding quantum computers breaking the Bitcoin network are significantly exaggerated. While acknowledging the theoretical validity of the threat — a sufficiently powerful quantum machine could derive a private key from a public one, enabling forged signatures and stolen funds — Thorn stressed that treating this scenario as inevitable or unique to Bitcoin is a mistake.

Quantum computing poses a challenge to all modern cryptography, not just blockchain networks. The distinction matters because it reframes the issue from a Bitcoin-specific vulnerability to a broad technological challenge that the entire digital infrastructure must eventually confront.

Why This Matters

Galaxy Digital is one of the most prominent institutional players in the crypto space, and its research positions carry weight with both investors and policymakers. By publicly characterizing the quantum threat as real but manageable, the firm helps set market expectations at a time when advances in quantum hardware by major tech companies periodically trigger alarm. The statement underscores that preparedness — not panic — is the appropriate response.

How Many Bitcoins Are Actually at Risk

Analysts at Project Eleven estimated that approximately 7 million BTC could be vulnerable to a quantum attack. These are coins whose public keys have already been exposed on the blockchain, primarily due to:

• Address reuse — every outgoing transaction reveals the public key;
• Storage in legacy wallet formats where the key is exposed by default.

The bulk of existing Bitcoin holdings remain safe under current technological conditions, as no quantum computer today comes close to the computational power required for such an attack.

Defensive Measures Already in Progress

Galaxy Digital highlighted that Bitcoin's developer community is actively working on preventive solutions across two main tracks:

• Post-quantum cryptography: New address types resistant to quantum attacks are being developed. Users will be able to migrate their funds to quantum-safe addresses well before any real threat materializes.
• Restrictions on dormant coins: Mechanisms are being discussed to gradually limit spending from addresses with exposed public keys. This approach would reduce systemic risk without resorting to confiscation of anyone's assets.

Thorn emphasized that quantum computers capable of breaking modern encryption are still far from reality. Bitcoin's open architecture gives the network ample time to adapt before any potential crisis emerges.

Diverging Industry Estimates

Opinions across the crypto industry vary widely. In February, analyst Willy Woo suggested that a quantum breach could dump as many as 4 million BTC onto the market. CoinShares, on the other hand, pegged the realistic scope of the quantum threat at just 10,200 BTC.

The wide gap between these estimates illustrates the uncertainty surrounding the topic. Still, the prevailing view among specialists leans toward the threat being genuine but neither imminent nor unmanageable — provided the ecosystem takes timely action to upgrade its cryptographic defenses.