Bitcoin Dips to $65,112 as Analysts Warn of Deeper Correction to $46K–$54K

BTC Hits Lowest Level Since Late February

Bitcoin fell to $65,112 on March 30, marking its lowest price since the end of February. By the time Asian markets opened, the leading cryptocurrency had partially recovered, climbing back to $67,400.

BTC/USDT hourly chart on Binance. Source: TradingView

Altcoins followed the brief recovery. Ethereum rose to $2,042, Solana reached $83.4, and XRP climbed to $1.35. On the weekly timeframe, however, the broader market remains bearish. ETH and TRX were the only exceptions, gaining 0.3% and 5% respectively.

Weekly performance of major cryptocurrencies. Source: CoinGecko

Why This Matters

The selloff is driven by a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop. Brent crude oil has surged to $115 per barrel, while industrial metal prices are also climbing. Asian stock indices dropped more than 3%.

Rising commodity prices are fueling inflation fears, casting doubt on the prospects of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. This macro environment traditionally weighs heavily on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Record Long Positions Flash Warning Signal

The number of BTC/USD long positions on Bitfinex has reached 79,343 — the highest level since November 2023.

BTC/USD long positions on Bitfinex. Source: CoinDesk, TradingView

CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole explained that this metric has historically served as a contrarian indicator. Spikes in bullish positioning often coincide with local price peaks followed by sharp declines. The current concentration of longs suggests a high risk that the $65,000–$75,000 consolidation range could break down in a deep selloff.

On-Chain Models Point to a $46K–$54K Bottom

On-chain analyst Willy Woo believes Bitcoin could find its floor somewhere between $46,000 and $54,000. He noted that the CVDD metric currently sits at $45,500.

"Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. Also hints at how much time we have to wait. Orange line correlates to the capital stored in BTC and it has been leaving since November. CVDD Floor Model has the advantage of climbing over time, 45.5k right now." — Willy Woo (@willywoo), original post

Woo also cautioned that a potential end to the global equity bull market could drag cryptocurrencies even lower.

Alphractal founder Joao Wedson echoed this outlook, highlighting a notable decline in the Short-Term Holder Realized Price.

"Short-Term Holder Realized Price has dropped significantly recently, and this is a sign that the pricing for a potential bottom has also moved lower. Now, the blue line I mentioned earlier is even lower, which could confirm that Bitcoin may form a bottom around $50K or slightly…" — Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson), original post

According to Wedson's calculations, the potential reversal point has shifted toward the $50,000 mark or slightly below. He urged traders to closely monitor on-chain metrics and set alerts for these price levels.

Broader Context: Bitcoin Amid Geopolitical Turmoil

Earlier in March, JPMorgan analysts noted that Bitcoin was weathering the Iran crisis better than major precious metals. The current correction, however, demonstrates that macro headwinds — surging commodity prices and Fed rate expectations — continue to exert significant pressure on the crypto market.